A PROJECTION METHOD FOR PUBLIC HEALTH AND LONG-TERM CARE by Christine de la Maisonneuve & Joaquim Oliveira Martins

By Christine de la Maisonneuve & Joaquim Oliveira Martins

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Extra info for A PROJECTION METHOD FOR PUBLIC HEALTH AND LONG-TERM CARE EXPENDITURES ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT WORKING PAPERS No. 1048

Sample text

1). 5% in the starting period to about 10% and above 5% in 2060 in the cost-pressure and the cost-containment scenario respectively. 1. 0 OECD BRIICS 60. 2). In the cost-containment scenario, one group of countries experiences a 4 to 5 percentage point increase in total spending to GDP ratios over the period 2010-2060. It includes countries that are ageing very rapidly (Korea and Chile), as well as those with currently low labour participation, which may face a substantial increase in the demand for formal long-term care (Spain and Mexico).

2003). 13 51. Finally, income is also likely to play a role in LTC expenditure. , 2011), thereby increasing expenditures. 4 shows a positive relationship between income and public LTC expenditure with an elasticity above one. It is difficult however to distinguish the income from the cost-disease effect, proxied by aggregate productivity, since they are too highly correlated. Given the multicollinearity between productivity and income, the two effects were estimated separately. The estimated influence of each of the non-demographic drivers of LTC expenditures has been used to parameterise the projection equation in Box 5.

In these countries demographic trends will be more stable. On average, non-OECD countries will experience a lower percentage point increase than OECD countries. 1). 2 Percentage point increase in the total public health and long-term care spending ratio to GDP, 20102060 Range of estimates across sensitivity analyses 1 12 Cost pressure Cost containment 10 8 6 4 2 Korea Turkey Chile Mexico Brazil Spain Luxembourg Slovak Republic Slovenia China Poland Greece Portugal Italy Switzerland OECD average Indonesia Netherlands Japan Australia Ireland Israel Canada New Zealand Austria Czech Republic Germany Estonia Hungary Non-OECD average Norway France Belgium United States Denmark Finland United Kingdom Iceland India Sweden Russia South Africa 0 1.

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