Actuarial Mathematic, Second Edition by Browers Gerber Hickman

By Browers Gerber Hickman

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Example text

A particular danger is that the expenses grow in an inflationary environment more rapidly than the incomes. This can be a crucial risk in life insurance where conventionally the insurer is tied to the original premium rates, which partially were already contracted decades ago. Not withstanding whether or not this risk is regarded in non-life analyses, it is obviously indispensable in the life insurance solvency tests such as will be discussed in Section 6. 4. If the insurer is not in a precarious economic position, the movements of 22 expenses offer a central tool for strategic planning.

Mixed distributions. The applicability of the cPD can be essentially improved allowing the Poisson parameter n = E[n] to vary stochastically. This can be due to the uncertainties inside the risk collective from which the risk units are inherent, or it can be caused by the short-term variation in the risk exposure such as weather, epidemics, etc. 51 D. In many practical considerations it is not necessary to give explicitly the claim size distribution and/or the structure distribution, it needs only to know their three (or four) lowest moments in addition to the Poisson parameter n.

The fulfiJIment of this condition may not cause problems in the normal going-concern process. 4, because this test assumes a notional discontinuation of the business. It implies that the cohorts inherent from different years of the origin of claims should be assigned to have matching assets and liabilities. Hence, if the break-up basis is adopted, then the above drafted risk theory model, that utilizes the conventional profit and loss variates, should be supplemented by a cash-flow model. The issue of the going-concern consideration is to aUow the new cohorts of claims to pay, so far as it is necessary, the cash flow of the earlier cohorts.

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